Uchikura & Co., LLC

Oil Over $100 Is Not New — History Matters

 

This is not the first time oil prices have gone over $100. And it will not be the last.

 

Every time it happens, people react as if it is something new—panic, speculation, and predictions of long-term crisis. But if you look at history, this cycle repeats itself.

 

In 2008, oil prices surged to over $140 per barrel. It was driven by global demand, financial speculation, and geopolitical tensions. Then came the financial crisis, and prices collapsed.

 

In the early 2010s, oil again stayed above $100 for several years. This time, it was supply constraints and strong demand from emerging markets. But once U.S. shale production increased, supply caught up—and prices dropped again.

 

More recently, after the pandemic, oil prices surged once again due to supply chain disruptions and geopolitical instability.

 

The pattern is clear:

 

Supply gets tight
Demand stays strong
Prices rise
New supply or reduced demand brings prices down

 

This is not a one-time event. It is a cycle.

 

The real question is not “Why is oil over $100?”
The real question is “What phase of the cycle are we in?”

 

If history tells us anything, it’s this:

 

High prices don’t last forever—but they always come back.

 

Understanding that is more important than reacting to headlines.